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美国极地风暴引发全球化学品价格飙升

中国石化新闻网讯据2月21日TradeArabia消息:行业专家表示,美国极地风暴目前已导致美国90%聚丙烯产能关闭,67%乙烯产能关闭,并破坏了其他重要产品,引发全球化工市场价格飙升。ICIS化学公司的WillBeacham补充称,墨西哥湾沿岸地区更多化工厂和炼油厂受到冰冻和冰雪天气导致的电力和原料长时间中断的打击,…… .....

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中国石化新闻网讯 据2月21日Trade Arabia消息:行业专家表示,美国极地风暴目前已导致美国90%聚丙烯产能关闭,67%乙烯产能关闭,并破坏了其他重要产品,引发全球化工市场价格飙升。

ICIS化学公司的Will Beacham补充称,墨西哥湾沿岸地区更多化工厂和炼油厂受到冰冻和冰雪天气导致的电力和原料长时间中断的打击,导致物流网络中断。

预计本周晚些时候更多恶劣天气可能会延长交通中断。

到目前为止,ICIS已经报告60多起因风暴导致的工厂停工,使用ICIS供求数据库进行的数据分析表明,海湾石化行业的大部分领域都受到严重影响。

从产量来看,受冲击最大的是乙烯,离线产能为2600万吨,占美国总量的67%。大约1100万吨(50%)的丙烯产能也处于停产状态,该地区许多炼油厂的产量也在减少。超过200万桶/天的美国炼油产能被关闭。

按百分比计算,受影响最严重的主要商品是环氧氯丙烷(美国产能100%脱机)、环氧丙烷(100%)、甲苯二异氰酸酯(100%)、乙二醇(90%)、聚丙烯(90%)、丙二醇(88%)、丙烯腈(73%)和丁苯橡胶(71%)。

停电正在使本已遭受物资短缺和价格上涨之苦的全球市场吃紧。全球集装箱运输系统问题、工厂停产加上健康的下游需求导致供应紧张,尤其是丙烯和聚乙烯链。

丙烯和聚丙烯可能是受风暴影响最严重的产品之一,因为市场已经处于动荡之中。冠状病毒大流行减少了对运输燃料的需求,并导致炼油厂关闭或减产,特别是在欧洲和美国。

这些工厂的关闭对丙烯和聚丙烯的供应产生了连锁反应,导致价格飙升。由于美国聚丙烯生产能力高度集中在墨西哥湾沿岸,即使暂时受到限制的生产能力也将对本已紧张的市场产生巨大影响。

美国丙烯价格处于10年高点,库存约为一年前的一半。由于去年丙烯产量减少,消费量超过了生产量。

2020年末,美国聚丙烯库存触及7年低点,部分原因是需求反弹和单体供应限制。在此天气事件之前还出现了生产问题。

聚乙烯市场没那么严重。包装供应和需求的限制支撑了全球市场度过大流行,物流挑战和停运导致2021年短缺和价格飙升。

随着美国近三分之二的乙烯产能下线,全球聚乙烯市场可能会进一步趋紧。

暴风雨影响,Lucite拆除了位于德克萨斯州博蒙特的工厂,预计美国甲基丙烯酸甲酯的供应也将进一步受到限制。原料丙酮的严格限制继续限制产量。由于成本高昂,听说生产商将从本月开始对订单征收丙酮临时附加费。

随着2月17日春节假期的结束,全球最大化学品市场的需求开始回升。

在非洲,各种来源的聚乙烯和聚丙烯卖家已撤回报价,预计美国出口将中断,节后市场将强劲反弹。

亚洲单乙二醇(MEG)价格周四飙升11%,为创纪录的最大单日涨幅,其支撑因素是全球供应收紧。

有人担心,美国向亚洲出口的乙烯等关键大宗商品可能会因与风暴相关的供应中断而中断。

欧洲价格也受到风暴的提振。上游价格上涨和看涨情绪推高了苯价格,苯乙烯价格目前处于2018年4月以来的最高水平。

冯娟 摘译自 Trade Arabia

原文如下:

Global chemical prices soar over US polar storm

The US polar storm has now shut down 90% of US polypropylene (PP) capacity, 67% of ethylene and devastated other important products, sending ripples around global chemical markets prices soaring, said n industry expert.

More chemical plants and refineries across the Gulf Coast region have been hit by prolonged power and feedstock outages caused by freezing weather, snow and ice which have also halted logistics networks, added Will Beacham at ICIS Chemical Business.

More bad weather, forecast for later in the week, may prolong the disruption.

So far, ICIS has reported more than 60 plant outages as a result of the storm, with analysis using data from the ICIS Supply & Demand database showing that a wide swathe of the Gulf petrochemical sector has now been severely impacted.

Worst hit in volume terms is ethylene, with 26m tonnes of capacity offline, representing 67% of the US total. Around 11m tonnes, or 50%, of propylene capacity is also offline, with many of the region’s oil refineries also seeing curtailed production. More than 2m bbl/day of US oil refining capacity is shut down.

In percentage terms, the major commodities worst affected are epichlorohydrin (ECH) (100% of US capacity offline), propylene oxide (PO) (100%), toluene diisocyanate (TDI) (100%), ethylene glycol (EG) (90%), polypropylene (PP) (90%), propylene glycol (88%), acrylonitrile (ACN) (73%) and styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) (71%).

The outages are tightening global markets which were already suffering shortages of material and rising prices. Problems with the global container shipping system, plant outages plus healthy downstream demand have caused tightness, notably down the propylene and polyethylene (PE) chains.

Propylene and PP are likely to be one of the hardest-hit by the storms because the market was already in turmoil. The coronavirus pandemic has reduced demand for transport fuels, and led to oil refineries closing or cutting production, particularly in Europe and the US.

These closures had a knock-on effect on supply of propylene and PP, leading to price spikes. With US PP production capacity so highly concentrated on the Gulf Coast, even temporarily constrained productions capabilities will have a massive effect on an already tightly supplied market.

US propylene prices are at 10-year highs and inventories are roughly half of what they were a year ago. Consumption has outpaced production due to reduced propylene production over the last year.

PP inventories in the US hit seven-year lows in late 2020, partially driven by rebounding demand and partially driven by limited monomer availability. Some PP production issues also preceded this weather event.

The situation is less dramatic in PE. Constrained supply and demand for packaging has sustained global markets through the pandemic, with logistics challenges and outages causing shortages and price spikes in 2021.

With almost two thirds of US ethylene capacity now offline, global PE markets are likely to tighten further.

US methyl methacrylate (MMA) supply is also expected to be further constrained thanks to the storm, as Lucite has taken down its plant in Beaumont, Texas. Severe constraints in feedstock acetone continue to limit production. Due to high costs, a producer is heard to be levying a temporary acetone surcharge on orders starting this month.

Global market impact

With the Chinese New Year holidays coming to an end from 17 February, demand is picking back up in the world’s largest chemicals market. ICIS reported that a supply shortage and improving demand after the holidays supported China’s polyolefins market, leading to a surge in futures and spot prices.

Futures prices in China also rose sharply for styrene, mono ethylene glycol (MEG), polyester and polypropylene.

Prior to the holiday, domestic petrochemical trading had been robust accompanied by sharp price increases as market players anticipated strong post-holiday demand. Surging oil prices provided additional impetus for the uptrend.

In Africa, PE and PP sellers, from all origins, have withdrawn their offers in anticipation of disruption to US exports and a strong return post-holiday market.

Asia’s monoethylene glycol (MEG) prices surged on Thursday by 11% - the biggest daily gain on record - underpinned by tightening global supply, as the Chinese markets re-opened after a week-long holiday.

There are fears that US exports to Asia of key commodities such as ethylene could be disrupted by the storm-related outages.

Europe prices have also been buoyed by the storms. Rising upstream prices and bullish sentiment sent benzene prices up, and styrene prices are now at highs not seen since April 2018.

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